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FAQ: HKTDC 2026 Hong Kong Export Forecast and AI Product Demand
TL;DR
Hong Kong exporters can leverage AI electronics demand and China's 20% US tariff advantage to gain market share over competitors facing higher tariffs.
The HKTDC forecasts 8-9% export growth in 2026 driven by AI electronics demand, with indices above 50 indicating expansion across multiple sectors.
Hong Kong's export growth fueled by AI technology creates economic stability and job opportunities, improving livelihoods through sustained trade development.
Hong Kong's jewelry sector leads export optimism with a 54.8 index, outpacing electronics despite AI driving overall growth.
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Hong Kong's exports are expected to grow by between 8% and 9% in 2026, according to the HKTDC's annual Export Outlook report.
The sustained growth is primarily driven by robust demand for AI-related electronics products, with 53.2% of exporters citing rising demand for AI/new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business.
The electronics sector accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total export value, making it crucial to the overall export performance.
While 2025 was a year of heightened uncertainty due to anticipated US tariffs, 2026 should be a year of greater clarity on global trade following the Chinese Mainland and US trade agreement in November 2025.
Both the Current Performance Index (51.4) and the Expectation Index (51.9) stayed above the 50-point watershed level, indicating that future export growth is expected.
For 42.0% of respondents, the Chinese Mainland was the highest priority market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%).
Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026, which puts China-based suppliers on par with their Southeast Asia counterparts while giving them a significant advantage over countries subject to higher tariff rates.
The figures are remarkable because many exporters frontloaded orders in 2025 to complete shipments before the imposition of anticipated US tariffs, creating a high year-on-year comparison base.
As US imports from different countries are subject to different levels of tariffs, business leaders worldwide will need to reorganize their activities to optimize any cost advantages, creating ongoing uncertainty.
Curated from NewMediaWire
