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FAQ: Stonegate Capital Partners' Q3 2025 Coverage Update on Aemetis, Inc.
TL;DR
Aemetis gains competitive advantage through multiple revenue streams from RNG production, tax credits, and favorable California policies that expand market opportunities and enhance profitability.
Aemetis operates twelve digesters producing biogas, monetizes through RNG sales and tax credits, and plans capacity expansion from 550,000 to 1.0M MMBtus by FY27 via strategic projects.
Aemetis reduces carbon emissions through renewable natural gas production and ethanol efficiency improvements, contributing to cleaner energy and supporting environmental sustainability goals.
Aemetis transforms dairy waste into renewable energy through biogas digesters, generating revenue while creating cleaner fuel alternatives through innovative technology and policy support.
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The update focuses on Aemetis' Q3 2025 results, emphasizing the strengthening Dairy RNG platform, revenue growth from India biodiesel and California ethanol, and the company's positioning to benefit from multiple policy tailwinds and credit monetization opportunities.
Aemetis reported revenue of $59.2 million, up $7 million sequentially, but had an operating loss of $8.5 million and a net loss of $23.7 million. Cash increased to $5.6 million at quarter end.
Key drivers include twelve operating digesters producing 114,000 MMBtu in Q3, generating about $4 million in revenue, fully monetized LCFS pathways, and capacity expansion expected to reach 550,000 MMBtus by year-end and 1.0 million MMBtus by FY27.
Aemetis benefits from CARB's long-duration LCFS framework, Section 45Z production tax credits, California's adoption of E15 via AB30 expanding the ethanol market, and ongoing state and federal clean-fuel mandates and incentives.
Aemetis expects Section 45Z monetization to become a recurring quarterly revenue item beginning in Q4 2025, with initial sales monetizing year-to-date credits generated.
The $30 million MVR project, scheduled for completion in Q2 2026, is projected to generate $32 million in incremental annual cash flow through 80% lower natural-gas usage, higher LCFS revenues from reduced carbon intensity, and increased transferable 45Z credits.
AB30 immediately allows statewide E15 use in California, expanding the potential ethanol market by more than 600 million gallons per year, which enhances Aemetis' plant economics alongside the Keyes MVR project.
Stonegate's DCF model returns a valuation range of $9.93 to $20.48 for Aemetis, with a midpoint of $14.06.
Monetization avenues include sale of RNG molecules, D3 RINs, and Section 45Z production tax credits, providing multiple levers for recurring cash generation.
The India biodiesel subsidiary delivered $14.5 million in revenue on resumed OMC allocations and continues to target an IPO in 2026.
Curated from Reportable
