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FAQ: U.S. eCommerce Growth Projections and Market Transformation
The NPI Founder says mobile commerce, AI, and omnichannel readiness are reshaping how consumer brands enter and sustain growth in the world’s largest retail market.
TL;DR
Brands can gain market advantage by leveraging NPI's distribution model to compete across digital and physical channels during rapid eCommerce growth.
U.S. eCommerce grows through mobile commerce driving most checkouts and generative AI improving conversion rates by aligning search with product discovery.
Mobile and AI integration creates more convenient and personalized shopping experiences that help consumers find products that better meet their needs.
Amazon holds 40% of the U.S. eCommerce market while Walmart grew online sales by 23% last year reaching over $120 billion.
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U.S. eCommerce is projected to grow from $1.25 trillion in 2025 to $2.08 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7 percent according to Mordor Intelligence.
Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts, while generative AI is improving conversion rates by aligning search intent with product discovery, creating a convergence of convenience and intelligence in retail.
Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts in the U.S., making it a dominant force in how consumers shop and complete purchases.
Generative AI is bridging the gap between awareness and action by helping consumers find what they actually want and enabling brands to tell their stories in ways that resonate faster and more authentically.
Amazon remains the dominant force with roughly 40% of the U.S. eCommerce market, while Walmart is quickly closing the gap with 23% year-over-year growth in online sales in 2024 and over $120 billion in digital revenue.
NPI's 'Evolution of Distribution' model prepares brands to compete across digital and physical channels by combining regulatory and operational readiness, retail positioning, relationship-driven introductions, and post-placement support to sustain long-term success.
eCommerce now represents 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales, having reached $1.1 trillion in 2024 with 7.5% year-over-year growth according to Digital Commerce 360 and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The growth of major players like Amazon and Walmart opens the door for smaller, high-quality brands that can prove readiness in areas such as compliance and category alignment before going to market.
Gould emphasizes that success requires orchestration, where brands synchronize data, fulfillment, and storytelling across every platform consumers use, rather than treating online and retail as separate worlds.
Mitch Gould is the Founder and CEO of Nutritional Products International (NPI), a retail distribution expert with over two decades of experience helping brands adapt to market shifts and representing top brands and celebrities.
Curated from Newsworthy.ai
