FAQ: U.S. eCommerce Growth Projections and Market Transformation

What are the projected growth figures for U.S. eCommerce by 2030?

U.S. eCommerce is projected to grow from $1.25 trillion in 2025 to $2.08 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.7 percent according to Mordor Intelligence.

What are the key drivers transforming the eCommerce landscape?

Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts, while generative AI is improving conversion rates by aligning search intent with product discovery, creating a convergence of convenience and intelligence in retail.

How significant is mobile commerce in the current eCommerce market?

Mobile commerce now drives the majority of online checkouts in the U.S., making it a dominant force in how consumers shop and complete purchases.

What role does generative AI play in eCommerce transformation?

Generative AI is bridging the gap between awareness and action by helping consumers find what they actually want and enabling brands to tell their stories in ways that resonate faster and more authentically.

Which companies dominate the U.S. eCommerce market currently?

Amazon remains the dominant force with roughly 40% of the U.S. eCommerce market, while Walmart is quickly closing the gap with 23% year-over-year growth in online sales in 2024 and over $120 billion in digital revenue.

What is NPI’s ‘Evolution of Distribution’ model?

NPI’s ‘Evolution of Distribution’ model prepares brands to compete across digital and physical channels by combining regulatory and operational readiness, retail positioning, relationship-driven introductions, and post-placement support to sustain long-term success.

What percentage of total U.S. retail sales does eCommerce represent?

eCommerce now represents 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales, having reached $1.1 trillion in 2024 with 7.5% year-over-year growth according to Digital Commerce 360 and the U.S. Census Bureau.

What opportunities exist for smaller brands in this evolving market?

The growth of major players like Amazon and Walmart opens the door for smaller, high-quality brands that can prove readiness in areas such as compliance and category alignment before going to market.

What does Mitch Gould emphasize as key to eCommerce success?

Gould emphasizes that success requires orchestration, where brands synchronize data, fulfillment, and storytelling across every platform consumers use, rather than treating online and retail as separate worlds.

Who is Mitch Gould and what is his expertise?

Mitch Gould is the Founder and CEO of Nutritional Products International (NPI), a retail distribution expert with over two decades of experience helping brands adapt to market shifts and representing top brands and celebrities.