FAQ: Stonegate Capital Partners' 3Q25 Coverage Update on BlackSky Technology (BKSY)
TL;DR
BlackSky secured over $60M in new contracts and maintains strong liquidity, positioning investors for potential gains as Gen-3 satellite deployment expands global intelligence capabilities.
BlackSky reported Q3 revenue of $19.6M with a $4.5M EBITDA loss, while maintaining FY25 guidance of $105-130M revenue and securing $322.7M in total contract backlog.
BlackSky's expanding global satellite network enhances international security cooperation and provides critical intelligence data to protect communities and support peaceful governance worldwide.
BlackSky's Gen-3 satellites will launch by year-end, featuring AI-enabled analytics and high-cadence imaging that revolutionizes real-time Earth observation for defense and intelligence applications.
Found this article helpful?
Share it with your network and spread the knowledge!
BlackSky reported revenue of $19.6M, adjusted EBITDA of ($4.5M), and EPS of ($0.44), with imagery and software services revenue decreasing 8.6% year-over-year to $15.8M and professional services revenue declining to $3.8M from $5.2M in the prior quarter.
The declines were primarily due to an expected reduction in NRO EOCL tasking, broader U.S. government budget uncertainties affecting near-term imagery orders, project timing for engineering services, and the inclusion of overhead costs associated with LeoStella operations.
BlackSky secured over $60M in new contracts, growing total backlog to $322.7M, with 91% from international customers, including a multi-year $30M+ contract with an international defense customer and several multimillion-dollar Gen 3 imagery and AI analytics awards.
The company expects to launch its third Gen-3 satellite by year-end 2025 and remains on track for a fully operational 12-satellite commercial constellation by the same timeframe.
BlackSky ended the quarter with $147.6M in cash, restricted cash, and short-term investments, plus $43.4M in unbilled contract assets, with management citing total liquidity exceeding $200M when including unbilled receivables and vendor financing.
The company maintained its FY25 outlook for revenue of $105M-$130M, adjusted EBITDA of breakeven to $10M, and capital expenditures of $60M-$70M, expecting a stronger fourth quarter driven by international demand and Gen 3 availability.
Stonegate's DCF analysis produced a valuation range of $24.60-$30.40 (mid-point $27.23), while their EV/EBITDA analysis resulted in a range of $23.26-$28.18 (mid-point $25.72).
BlackSky's revenue of $19.6M missed Stonegate's estimate of $29.9M and consensus of $28.6M, while adjusted EBITDA of ($4.5M) missed both Stonegate's $3.2M estimate and consensus of $1.9M, though EPS of ($0.44) beat Stonegate's ($1.06) estimate.
Key growth drivers include the expanding Gen 3 satellite constellation, rising demand for high-cadence tasking and AI-enabled analytics, strong international contract wins, and conversion of the $322.7M backlog, particularly from defense and intelligence customers.
Curated from Reportable
