FAQ: Standard Chartered GBA Business Confidence Indices Reach Multi-year Highs

What is the Standard Chartered Greater Bay Area Business Confidence Index (GBAI) and what does it measure?

The GBAI is a quarterly survey jointly released by Standard Chartered and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council that measures business confidence in the Greater Bay Area, tracking both current business performance and future expectations across various economic indicators.

How much did the GBAI indices increase in Q3 2025 and what were the specific figures?

The ‘current performance’ index rose to 54.7 from 53.1 in Q2, while the ’expectations’ index increased to 55.7 from 52 in Q2, marking four-year and two-year highs respectively.

What factors contributed to the improved business confidence in Q3 2025?

The improvement was supported by reduced external uncertainty following the extension of the US-China trade truce by 90 days to November, constructive dialogue between the two countries, and multiple trade agreements reached with major trading partners during the survey period.

Which sub-indices showed the strongest improvement in current performance?

The ’new orders’ sub-index saw the strongest increase with an 8-point jump to 57.5, while ‘prices of finished goods/services’ increased by 4.1 points to 58.8, with six of the eight index components showing quarter-on-quarter improvement.

Which city showed the strongest rise in business confidence and what were the specific increases?

Hong Kong saw the strongest rise in confidence among all GBA cities, with the ‘current performance’ sub-index increasing 8.3 points to 52.2 and the ’expectations’ sub-index rising 7.3 points to 53.6, supported by continued trade frontloading and robust financial activities.

What concerns did Standard Chartered’s economist express about future business sentiment?

Hunter Chan noted that persistent trade uncertainty may hold back business sentiment again, and with increasing external uncertainties and competition challenges in the Chinese Mainland, the trend of diversification will continue as companies explore overseas markets to mitigate potential risks.

How did GBA companies report being affected by excessive domestic competition (‘anti-involution’)?

Most respondents (63.5%) indicated they had not been affected by excessive domestic competition, while 3.1% said they benefited from it. About 29% reported moderate impact and 5% indicated significant impact, with over 70% of affected businesses seeing negative impacts on profit and sales.

When was the survey conducted and what was the reporting period?

The survey was conducted from early August to early September 2025, covering the third quarter of 2025, with the results released on October 15, 2025.

What strategies are GBA companies adopting to mitigate potential risks according to the survey?

The survey found that exploring overseas markets (24.5%) remains one of the key strategies that GBA corporates are adopting to mitigate potential risks amid increasing external uncertainties and competition challenges.